It is usually used for tactical planning when the strategic plan is divided into short-term actions, such as a week or a month. The method allows you to calculate what sales volume needs to be achieved in the upcoming period of similar duration. At the same time, the fact that data becomes outdated is taken into account. New information weighs more than old information.
The calculations are based on the initial It is usually used for tactical planning
which is designated as “a”. Its value varies c level contact list between 0 and 1. During periods of stable sales, the smoothing constant value is between 0.2 and 0.4. If sales increase, the indicator increases to 0.7-0.9. The metric is calculated based on empirical data. It has its own value for each company. The following formula is used for the calculation: a * x * current sales fact + (1 – a) x * current forecast = plan for the next period.
Let’s give an example: The store sold 140 pillow correct use of guarantees s in a month. The established plan is 110 units of goods. The smoothing constant value for this case is 0.3. We calculate the sales plan for the next month: 0.3 * x * 140 + (1 – 0.3) x * 110 = 119 pillows.
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Decomposition
When calculating the sales plan, the seasonality coefficient is taken into account. If necessary, more in-depth calculations are carried out. In this case, such indicators as cyclicality and trend are taken into account. The technique is effective for a business that is seasonal in nature.
To determine the value of the seasonality coefficient, it is necessary to divide the sum for the year by 12 months, then divide the income of each period by the obtained average value. As a result, we obtain the coefficient indicator for each month.
Example: Last year the store’s profit was 730,000 rubles. We find the average value: 730,000 / 12 = 60,833 rubles.
Let’s assume that the profit in January was 20,000 rubles. We calculate the seasonality coefficient: 20,000 / 60,833 = 0.32. We will calculate the seasonality coefficient for February in a similar way. The profit this month was 35,000 rubles. We determine the value of the indicator: 35,000 / 60,833 = 0.57.
Let’s say that the business owner sets a goal to increase sales by 10%: 730,000 + 10% = 803,000 rubles.
Let’s sum it up: With these parameters, the average monthly sales plan will be 803,000 / 12 = 66,916 rubles. Now let’s calculate the plan for January: 66,916 x 0.32 = 21,413 rubles.
Despite the fact that collecting and analyzing
information is a rather expensive process, cyprus business directory statistical analysis is considered the most effective method of sales planning. Since young companies do not have enough
